This year is historic. It's the year in which the world must decide if it will agree a safe and fair global deal to combat climate change. The outcome could not matter more to millions of poor people around the world who are already feeling the negative impacts of climate change.

Starting Monday, June 1, negotiations for a global deal on climate change are once again heading to Bonn, Germany for the second of four negotiating sessions before Copenhagen. Negotiators must quickly weed out those proposals that will set us on course for climate disaster and those that will leave poor countries to cope alone with the devastating effects of climate change.

For the first time, negotiators in Bonn will debate the draft text of a global deal - a mixed bag of good, bad and ugly proposals for tackling climate action, which will form the basis of negotiations over the next six months. But many key issues remain contentious.

Key to a deal in Copenhagen is a "shared vision" on what the global deal should aim to achieve. The draft text refers to a number of proposals- most notably a proposal from the EU to keep global temperatures from rising above 2°C/3.6°F over pre-industrial levels and a proposal from small island states and least developed countries to keep global temperatures from rising above 1.5°C/2.7°F. Scientists predict that sea level rise will inundate many small island states if temperatures are allowed to rise by 2°C/3.6°C.

There is also a wide gap between what developed countries are prepared to do on emissions reductions and what the science and developing countries demand. The draft text includes a range of proposals for emission reductions by developed countries, such as a proposal for rich countries to independently develop their own emissions reductions targets and other a proposal for developed countries to dramatically cut their emissions by at least 45 percent cuts in emissions by 2020 based on 1990 levels.

But it's the financing issue could break the camel's back. While draft text includes proposals for developing countries to make significant cuts in their emissions, developed countries have been reluctant to set out what level of support developing countries should receive for mitigation or adaptation activities. The G77 group of developing countries has called on developed countries to contribute between 0.5 and 1% of their GDP towards mitigation and adaptation action (respectively) in the developing world.  Without money on the table to help developing countries adapt and pursue low-carbon futures, the chronic lack of trust between developed and developing countries will persist and a deal will not be made.

And there's a leadership vacuum. The Group of 77 developing countries and China continues to call on rich countries to take a lead in tackling climate change. The EU has lost its leadership role in the global negotiations, waiting instead for the US to move first, and the US has only recently began to formally announce its positions on many key issues.

The US has publicly stated its intention to agree to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, an inadequate reduction target.  While the US submission to the UNFCCC recognized the need for a "dramatic increase" in financing for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, its submission did not provide specificity about how those resources will be generated.

Much of the debate in the US is focused on the 'Waxman - Markey' bill which, in its current form, would lead to the 3% reduction in US emissions from 1990 levels by 2020 and provide approximately $750 million annually each for international adaptation and clean energy technology and approximately $4 billion annually for international reduced deforestation.  But the bill has a way to go before becoming law or bolstering the US position in negotiations.

The larger developing countries have already made significant steps to reduce emissions and have signaled their willingness to discuss further action - if rich countries provide the financial and technological support that is needed.  For example, Mexico has already committed to cutting its emissions by 50 percent by 2050 and China is a world leader in renewable energy investment - having invested $12 billion in renewable energy in 2007.

All eyes will be on negotiators in Bonn to signal the feasibility of a fair and adequate deal in Copenhagen. But there's really no choice. Oxfam estimates that by 2015 the average number of people affected each year by climate-related disasters could increase by over 50 percent to 375 million. That's more than the entire population of the US.