Posted On: April 29th, 2009
Posted By: Francesco_Femia
Introduction: Arms control and nuclear non-proliferation advocates have focused their efforts on a number of key policy objectives over recent years - all with the goal of reducing the threat of nuclear war and weapons proliferation. Advocates have generally advanced this goal through promoting the enhancement of the "non-proliferation regime" - a web of treaties, laws, and agreements. The election of President Barack Obama has created an unmistakable opportunity to move the non-proliferation regime forward. During the campaign, President Obama made ambitious commitments to key non-proliferation objectives. In her confirmation hearings before the Senate, then Secretary-designate Hillary Clinton made explicit that non-proliferation would be high on the agenda. But where do things stand 100 days into the Obama Administration? In all, there have been a number of positive commitments articulated by the Obama Administration and some substantial actions in Congress, though there is an understanding in the non-proliferation community that there is a lot of work to do over the next eight months. The following is a report on the state-of-play on 10 key non-proliferation objectives.
1. Strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): Many non-proliferation objectives fall under preventing the erosion of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty's purpose - which is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. Debates often center around progress towards worldwide disarmament, and problems with "verification of compliance" with the NPT. During a speech in Prague, President Obama voiced support for providing extra resources and greater authority for international inspections, and endorsed "real and immediate consequences" for countries found in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. These stated objectives may be clarified during the final preparation conference for the 2010 NPT Review conference, which is just around the bend. Many of the objectives detailed below speak to implementing commitments made in the NPT.
2. Global Zero, and significant weapons reductions: During the same speech in Prague cited above, President Obama made a rhetorical commitment to a "global zero" agenda - or the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons worldwide. U.S. commitment to such an agenda has been the long-time objective of a number of arms control advocates, including Global Zero and the Campaign for a Nuclear Weapons Free World. While significant obstacles (and years) stand in the way of such a vision being realized, this is an unprecedented step. The arms control community has offered its perspectives on significant reductions in recent events and reports. The Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council released a paper calling for fundamental changes to U.S. nuclear war planning, which they argue is a vital prerequisite if smaller nuclear arsenals are to be achieved. The Nuclear Weapons Complex Consolidation Policy Network also outlines for the Obama Administration and Congress how to shrink the nuclear weapons complex to support a smaller stockpile in a safer, more secure, and less costly manner."
3. Negotiating a follow-on to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that increases nuclear weapons reductions commitments between the U.S. and Russia: The START is a bi-lateral treaty between the United States and Russia designed to reduce the nuclear arsenals of both countries. The current treaty is set to expire in December of this year - and advocates have been calling for a new treaty with deeper reduction commitments and better compliance standards. On April 1, President Obama issued a joint statement with Russian President Medvedev, heralding the beginning of negotiations on a new nuclear arms reduction treaty. According to some arms control experts, the new treaty would likely include modest cuts to both nations' long-range nuclear arsenals, while significantly extending and strengthening the verification and monitoring provisions of the 1991 START Treaty. Soon after the statement's release, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation also posted a brief analysis of the proposed follow-on treaty. The assessment is positive, though the Center acknowledges that there will be difficulties garnering support in Congress for bold cuts, and challenges inherent in the Senate calendar. See the Center's START Resource Center for more information.
4. Ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): The CTBT, which has not yet entered into force, bans all nuclear testing by all parties to the treaty. Thus far, the U.S. has signed, but not ratified, the treaty. President Obama, however, announced his administration's intention to "immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty," a perennial objective for the arms control community. Following that, the Washington Post reported that Vice President Joe Biden may soon be appointed to push for Senate ratification of the CTBT, though there has been no confirmation of that from the White House. Will ratification, requiring 67 votes in the Senate, be easy? Not likely. But the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation's John Isaacs presents a compelling strategy for Senate approval.
5. Negotiating a new Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty: Many arms control advocates have been calling for progress on the Fissile-Material Cutoff Treaty, an agreement to end the production of fissile materials used in nuclear weapons. Though negotiations on such a treaty are currently stuck in Geneva, due in large part to Chinese intransigence and disputes between India and Pakistan, President Obama (again, in Prague) called for "a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons." An ambitious objective. There are, however, some compelling ideas out there for moving the process along. The Arms Control Association released a report in March sub-titled "How to Have Meaningful and Helpful Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty," which assesses the current impasse on treaty negotiations, and makes some suggestions for overcoming it - namely, taking negotiations out of the UN Conference on Disarmament.
6. Maintaining funding for non-proliferation measures/ Cutting funding for new nuclear weapons: In late February, President Obama released the top-line numbers for his 2010 national security budget. According to Taxpayer's for Common Sense, the Energy Department's budget would remain the same, but White House information indicated that there would be a shift in priorities. Funding would increase for programs regarding nuclear cleanup, nonproliferation, and extending the life of old warheads. Significantly, as reported by the Arms Control Association and others, the Reliable Replacement Warhead, a program initiated by the Bush Administration to rebuild nuclear warheads, is slated for elimination under the Obama budget. Also of note was the elimination of $1 billion for the National Nuclear Security Administration, from an early version of the economic stimulus package. This followed on the heels of an emergency letter to the Senate, delivered by representatives from 23 state and national organizations.
7. Securing loose nuclear material: Taxpayer's for Common Sense reported that the 2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act, signed into law by President Obama on March 10, "allocated $395 million for the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, aimed at securing nuclear material around the world, and $1.5 billion total for nonproliferation measures." In Prague, President Obama committed to securing "all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years."
8. Halting the development of nuclear weapons programs by states that do not currently possess them: The Obama Administration announced that it would, for the first time, join multilateral negotiations with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, which would include Germany and UN Security Council permanent members China, Russia, the UK and France. Iran has not yet accepted this new forum for negotiations. See the American Foreign Policy Project's recent White Paper for some clear recommendations for U.S. action. Moving east, on April 15, North Korea announced that it was expelling international inspectors, and withdrawing from the Six-Party talks. This was followed a week and a half later by an announcement from the North Korean Foreign Minister that they had "started to extract plutonium from spent fuel rods at its nuclear arms plant." It is not yet clear what the Obama Administration's strategy for dealing with North Korea's nuclear program will be.
9: Promoting the international fuel bank: In addition to reiterating the objectives outlined in his Prague Speech, President Obama, in comments delivered to the Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, expressed support for the international nuclear fuel bank and other constructive international initiatives that allow "all countries to enjoy the benefits of nuclear power while avoiding the spread of nuclear weapons and technologies."
10. Keeping space weapons-free: Soon after Inauguration Day, the Obama Administration issued a policy statement which included a pledge to "seek a worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites"- the deadlock in the UN Conference on Disarmament notwithstanding. While there has not been much talk from the Administration since, the Project for Nuclear Awareness held a Congressional briefing in February which included discussion of "a treaty on keeping outer space weapons-free."
Conclusion: The flurry of commitments from the Obama Administration, and the recent actions in Congress, are encouraging to many in the arms control and non-proliferation communities. However, the difficult work of realizing those commitments -achieving ratification of key treaties, negotiating new ones, getting nations to comply with agreements, and actually reducing nuclear arsenals, will be the subject of intense activity through the end of the year, and beyond.
This report is part of an extended, regularly updated series on the issues of greatest concern to our community, highlighting the state of play on these key topics, and the state of the key players involved. We encourage community members to comment on and add to this piece by sending an email to Francesco Femia at ffemia@connectusfund.org. We will include all significant updates to these reports in future Connect U.S. Fund newsletters. Click here for key non-proliferation related events coming up in the near future.
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