A House Divided

Posted February 13th, 2012 at 4pm by smarshall


Tensions between the West and Iran continue to rise following Israel’s threat to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the republic does not yield to international demands to immediately discontinue its nuclear program. The New York Times recapped President Obama’s interview with NBC’s Matt Lauer on Sunday, February 5, where they discussed these recent developments. In an effort to quell fears that Israel could be planning an attack against Iran as early as this spring, as claimed by U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Obama stated that he does not believe Israel has decided on such measures and remained hopeful for a diplomatic resolution. Obama concluded the interview confirming that the U.S. and Israel continue to “work in lockstep.”

Talks of an Israeli preemptive attack on Iran coincided with last week’s visit paid by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to Iranian nuclear facilities. According to the New York Times, the IAEA was not permitted to further investigate elements of the program the agency believes to be a cause for concern, indicating that Israel’s growing unease of Iran’s nuclear program could be well-founded. This reinforced suspicions that the program is a cover for the pursuit of nuclear weapons, a claim Iran refutes. While the U.S. warns Israel against drastic action (or even the threat of such) so early in the game, Israel may be in greater risk than its counterparts in Washington. The Washington Post reports Iran allegedly launched a satellite on Friday, February 3rd, adding to the West’s fears that rockets may be used for regional nuclear attacks in the future.

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded to Israeli threats Friday in a speech at Tehran University declaring that Iran will support any factions against the “Zionist regime,” including the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Analysts say the speech has the potential to initiate military action. The Washington Post denotes the Iranian leader’s message conflicted with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s attitude last month when he declared Iran was ready for talks with the West, although he made clear that the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program was not up for discussion. It has been reported that many Iranians, including the President himself, are unhappy with the Ayatollah’s conduct in addressing the issue.

Keeping in theme of dissension, the Washington Post states that an Israeli official told reporters that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed his cabinet to no longer speak of a potential strike against Iran. Netanyahu believes such talks have proved damaging to Israeli interests—however, in concurrence with Obama, he commented that no options have been ruled out. It remains unclear whether this warning came as result of Washington’s lack of support, the Ayatollah’s recent speech, or both. Whatever the case may be, it is evident that coordinating an attack would be difficult at a time when each team’s players seem to be at odds internally.

Offering his judgment on why Israel should retract its threat, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations Leslie H. Gelb explained that hostile ultimatums will not only fail at ending Iran’s nuclear program but result in a war in which Israel bears great risks. Retaliation could occur on a global scale as Iran may target the U.S. and Europe as well. Ultimately, the legitimacy of Israel would be compromised for the temporary destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities that can be rebuilt in formidable fashion within two years. Gelb points out that while economic sanctions “weaken and divide” Iran, military threats will only unite the republic and build up resistance.

According to the New York Times, U.S. economic sanctions against the country were tightened on Sunday—freezing all assets of the Central Bank of Iran, Iranian financial institutions, and the central government—in an effort to increase pressure on the regime to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Allies and other countries were also warned against conducting business with the Central Bank of Iran or they will face U.S. penalties. The executive order is intended to send a message to Iran that diplomatic and economic pressure will not subside until international concerns are addressed. The administration is also working to convince countries to no longer purchase Iranian oil but to instead do business with other oil rich countries such as Saudi Arabia.
 

Primary Issues: 
Nuclear Weapons
Arms Control-Disarmament
National Security-Defense
Advocacy Practices: 
None

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